Four things set how much room Romania's budget has: the EU's fiscal limits, the rating agencies, the PNRR money and the laws that change taxes. Here is where each stands.
−7.9%4.9 pp beyond the limit
60.1%0.1 pp beyond the limit
Each agency's latest action on Romania, as recorded in the event log.
No rating actions recorded yet.
Every recorded rule change: ratings, the deficit procedure, taxes, the budget, PNRR and BNR decisions.
No changes recorded yet.
The deficit procedure. EU members commit to keeping the budget deficit under 3% of GDP and public debt under 60%, the reference values in the Treaty. A country whose deficit breaks the limit enters the excessive deficit procedure: the Council sets a path and a deadline for correcting it, and the Commission assesses progress at each step. Straying from the path can lead to a suspension of Cohesion Fund commitments.
Ratings. Fitch, Moody’s and S&P grade how likely the state is to repay what it borrows. The lowest investment grade is BBB− at Fitch and S&P and Baa3 at Moody’s; below it, many funds can no longer hold the bonds, and borrowing gets dearer. The outlook (stable, negative, positive) signals the likely direction of the next move.
PNRR. The National Recovery and Resilience Plan is Romania’s share of the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility: grants and loans paid in instalments, each once the Commission finds the milestones and targets behind it met. The Facility’s regulation sets its end: milestones by 31 August 2026, payments by 31 December 2026.
The euro. Romania is committed to adopting the euro, but first has to meet the convergence criteria: inflation, the deficit, debt, long-term interest rates, and two years of a stable leu inside the ERM II exchange-rate mechanism.