How fuel prices are set in Romania, Europe and the world, why they are rising now, and what follows the wars

What a litre is made of

The price of a litre of petrol or diesel in Romania is built in layers:

• The product quotation: the international price of refined petrol or diesel, published by agencies such as Platts, in dollars per tonne. It is not the crude price but the finished product's. Between the two sits the refining margin, which can rise independently of crude.
• The leu–dollar rate: the quotation is paid in dollars, so a weaker leu makes a litre dearer even if the quotation does not move. The USD/RON chart below shows the BNR rate.
• Logistics and the retailer's margin: transport, storage, compulsory stocks, running the station.
• Excise: a fixed amount in lei per 1,000 litres, set in the Fiscal Code, not a percentage of the price.
• VAT: charged on the price that already includes excise, so the state collects VAT on the excise as well.

Why a fixed excise matters

When the quotation rises, excise stays the same in lei, so its share of the price falls. That is why the pump price rises by a smaller percentage than the quotation. The Ministry of Finance published both indicators on 15 September 2026: Platts quotations for diesel were up 51.19%, and the average pump price of standard diesel up 27.47%, both measured against the reference period in Law 162/2026.

The effect also works in reverse: when the quotation falls, the litre gets cheaper by a smaller percentage than the quotation.

What the Romanian state is doing now

Law 162/2026 introduced a temporary cut of 5% to 25% in excise on standard diesel. The Ministry of Finance recalculates it every two weeks, using Competition Council data on Platts quotations and pump prices. For 16–30 September 2026 the cut stays at the 25% maximum: effective excise is 2,103.22 lei per 1,000 litres, 701.07 lei less than the standard level (Ministry of Finance, via Juridice.ro).

The cut applies only to standard diesel, not to petrol. Because it is already at the 25% ceiling, the mechanism cannot offset any further rise in quotations. Any excise cut also means less budget revenue.

In Europe

The rules are shared; the amounts are not. Directive 2003/96/EC sets only minimum excise rates: EUR 359 per 1,000 litres for unleaded petrol and EUR 330 for diesel. Each member state adds its own excise and its own VAT rate on top. The product quotation is nearly the same across the Union, so differences between countries come mostly from taxes. The European Commission's Weekly Oil Bulletin publishes prices for each member state both with and without taxes. The column without taxes is the one that can fairly be compared across countries.

In the world

The bottom layer, the price of crude and products, is global. The layers above it are national. Where fuel taxes are low, the pump price tracks the quotation almost percentage point for percentage point. Where fixed taxes are high, as in most EU countries, the percentage move is cushioned. Some producer countries regulate or subsidise the price, and there the pump can come loose from the market altogether.

Why prices are rising now

The International Energy Agency (report of 11 September 2026) points to several causes that compound:

• more than 10 million barrels a day of Gulf output was still shut in during August, and Gulf crude exports were at nearly half their pre-war level;
• Gulf exports of refined products were about 60% below their February level;
• global observed oil inventories have fallen by 507 million barrels since February;
• refining margins hit record levels in the Atlantic Basin in August, led by diesel.

Dated Brent crude averaged $91.00 a barrel in August and rose to $113.48 on 9 September, after fighting between the United States and Iran resumed. Separately, drone strikes on Russian refineries have cut Russia's diesel output (Reuters, via Kyiv Independent). That takes diesel off the global market, even though the EU no longer imports Russian oil products.

Diesel has risen more than petrol because the shortage is also in refining, not only in crude.

When the rise will stop

No one knows, and this article makes no forecast. What can be cited are institutional forecasts, with their caveats. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its 9 September 2026 outlook, expects Brent to average about $90 in the second half of 2026, $77 in the second quarter of 2027 and $67 in the second half of 2027. The EIA also warns that flows through the Strait of Hormuz will stay volatile, and that short-term price moves will probably be larger than its forecast shows. The IEA has pushed normalisation of flows into next year because US–Iran negotiations have stalled.

For pump prices in Romania, two local factors also matter: the leu–dollar rate and the fortnightly decision on diesel excise.

If the wars end

A ceasefire changes expectations at once, and quotations can react the same day. The missing barrels do not come back as fast:

• the EIA assumes it will take until the second quarter of 2027 for most Middle East production and trade flows to return to pre-conflict levels, and that some producers may not fully recover within that period;
• a new bypass pipeline in the United Arab Emirates is not expected until mid-2027;
• the inventories drawn down since February have to be rebuilt, and rebuilding them keeps demand up even after supply returns.

Damaged refineries and plants need equipment with long delivery times. Risk premiums and shipping costs usually ease first; physical capacity recovers last. And once quotations fall, the excise cut is recalculated from them, so a lower quotation can also bring back a higher excise, which softens the fall at the pump.

What the charts show

The BNR's USD/RON rate, which turns a dollar quotation into a price in lei. Inflation as measured by the national CPI (INS) and by the HICP (Eurostat), which fuel enters directly through the consumer basket and indirectly through transport.